INTERATIONAL SOCIETY FOR POVERTY ELIMINATION ECONOMIC ALLIANCE GROUP
Briefing # 9: The $5 Trillion Wars and $15 Trillion Wars: Rethinking Development, Diplomacy, Defence, Democracy and Data – Central Role for SDG Vision and Words with Action?
Global Call to US Leaders, Europe Leaders, World Leaders, Representatives of 193 UN Member States, 9 Major Groups, other CSOs’ and other Stakeholders.
By Lanre Rotimi and Peter Orawgu. 23 October 2016
The evidence of the 135th US Labour Day is that Poverty in America is at Jim Crow Days level for increasing number of American Children, Youth, Women, Men and Elders. If there is any comfort, across the Ocean in the UK, Poverty is now at Victorian Era levels for increasing number of UK Children, Youth, Women, Men and Elders. This is also the reality in many Developed and Developing Countries in our World today. Therefore, putting these issues firmly on the Front Burner in the Public Arena in the 16 Days remaining to US 2016 Presidential Elections, are issues that are too important to be left in the hands of American Politicians and American Citizens alone.
Refocusing the 2016 US Presidential Elections on Fundamental Issues
US$ 5 Trillion War on Terror
16 days to the 8 November US Presidential Elections, there is a need to reflect deeply on root problems that led to this Election being probably the most divisive ever in US history and make meaningful progress finding sustainable solutions to same, even in the limited time remaining because 24 hours is a very long time in Politics, how much more 16 days. This is more so when this 2016 US Presidential Elections coincide with 135th Labor Day in US and 1st year after World Leaders endorsed the SDG.
The most recent estimates suggest that US War on Terror has cost about US$5 Trillion and has been financed through Bonds in ways that side track US Budgetary Framework and so American Politicians and American Citizens appear ignorant of this staggering costs, since it is not financed by Tax and repayment will be the responsibility of future Generations of Americans.
It is a Scar on the Conscience of American Politicians and American Public that this US$ 5 Trillion and increasing War on Terror is essentially a Spectator War in which most Americans are neither involved nor engaged. This accounts for the absence of any real political discussion about how America will fund huge costs of the War on Terror that are still to be paid — for example, the $1 Trillion in lifetime disability compensation that Americans have awarded to 960,000 recent veterans.
It is worse that no American is asking whether the current approach in Afghanistan is working. Last month the US special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, John Sopko, reported that corruption in Afghanistan is far more widespread than before the 2001 US invasion, due to US policies that “unintentionally aided and abetted corruption.” But his investigations get barely a mention in the media. Americans need to actually learn lessons from lessons learnt in the past 15 years of War on Terror
The required minimum certain levels of change will begin to occur only if Americans are obliged to pay for War on Terror operations on “Pay as Americans Go” basis, and also set aside money now to support and care for American veterans in the future. This is not simply about sound fiscal budgetary policy. Rather, it is about shouldering the burden of America Wars and, in doing so, being open to learn from America Wars mistakes. All Americans want to continue to “Support America Troops.” Sweeping the costs under the carpet is clearly not the right way to do it. Now is the time for US Universities, American Elders, American Citizens of Goodwill, American Security and American Media to be more determined in pursuing American Rescue Mission that Works.
US$ 15 Trillion War on Poverty
In addition to the US$5 Trillion War on Terror, the US Government is also Fighting War on Poverty at cost of US$15 Trillion. Americans need to be genuinely concerned and engaged in HOW American Congress Finance War on Terror and War on Poverty. Americans in indeed the World would be better off, using the next 16 Days to the 2016 Presidential Elections for Serious Talk on Serious Issues of the Dishonest Methods American Congress use to spend money and buy votes.
The Social Programs within War on Poverty are destined to bankrupt America by the way their finances are structured and by America’s demographics, if not urgently overhauled. Whoever becomes the next US President will have the honour of guiding America through the next waves of National and Global Financial Crises any of which could make 1930s Global Recession Child’s Play if urgent remedial measures are not taken.
Evaluation – Learning Lessons
There is urgent need to undertake sound Evaluation of past 15 Years (September 2001 – September 2016) of American War on Terror, if the next 15 (September 2016 – September 2031) Years Scorecard is to be different and also undertake sound Evaluation of the first 50 Years (January 1964 – January 2014) of American War on Poverty, if the next 50 Years (January 2014 – January 2064) Scorecard is to be different.
As long as American Politicians and American Citizens as well as Politicians in other Developed Countries and Developing Countries and Citizens in other Developed Countries and Developing Countries do not actually learn lessons of history, these Politicians and Citizens are doomed to repeat the mistake of history at Sub-national, National and International levels in the National and Global War on Terror and War on Poverty.
As long as American Politicians and American Citizens leave undone what they ought to do and do what they ought not to do, the real issues will continue to be avoided or evaded and the next American President will not clear signal from the American Citizens that help him/her Muster the Political Will required to effectively address all necessary Political and Sensitive Issues that Rethinking War on Terror and War on Poverty for Sustainable Solutions need to address in the Common Interest and Common Future of US and the World. This underlines urgent need to build bridge between lessons learning and lessons forgetting from Community to Global levels.
US National Security
American Politicians and American Citizens need to get out of their belief that the rest of the World is America’s potential enemy, that war with someone at each point in time, is always inevitable and only a strong military will keep America safe.
The reality is that this belief no longer holds in today’s World, even if there could be reasons for it in the past. Today there is increasing awareness of Global Human Connectedness and the Shared Planetary Risk of Eco-collapse that is worsened by increasing Climate Change and Agriculture Challenges from Community to Global levels.
The American Politician and American Citizens should appreciate that if they do not know why Terror is Fighting America and the World, they will not know how to Fight Terror within the US and Worldwide; that Fighting Terror that is essentially Guerilla Warfare, using Conventional Warfare Strategy and Tactics effort that is doomed to fail ab initio and that one can reason with another who wants to kill you but does not want to die in the process, however reasoning with one who wants to kill you and die in the process is an entirely different ball game and that collateral damage in Civilian Lives and Property in reality is booster to the Terrorist and so if care is not take Americans will be helping the Terrorists to defeat America and achieve their Goal of American Decline on Palter of Gold.
As America safety is far, far more imperiled by the fact that America has a military whose operations facing current direction and adopting current priorities is, in fact, creating more enemies as it churns out endless collateral damage, a.k.a., dead and injured civilians, than by any enemy that military is allegedly fighting, the time is now for America to Design and Deliver New National Security Strategy and New International Security Strategy that is Integral Part of curing diseases responsible for current failure of Community to Global: Development, Diplomacy, Defense, Democracy – regardless of the form of Government – Capitalism, Socialism, Communism, Welfarism etc in any of the 193/306 UN Member States and Data.
US Congress Gimmicks and President Obama’s Nobel Price for Peace
President Obama promised to end Congress Gimmicks but they continued throughout his Presidency. The next President needs the support of American Citizens to end the Gimmicks in America’s enlightened self interest. President Obama was awarded Nobel Price for Peace at the onset of his Presidency – an act that is similar to awarding pass with Distinction before sitting examination. In the twilight of his Presidency, President Obama would earn his Nobel Price, if he helps to refocus the 2016 Presidential Elections to more effectively address substantive National and International Development Cooperation as well as National and International Security issues.
US Political Revolution and related Revolutions and Initiatives
It is pertinent to note that poverty is a cause and a product of human rights violations; that corruption is a cause and a product of poverty; that injustice is a cause and a product of corruption and that inequality is a cause and a product of injustice. Therefore if American Politicians and American Citizens as well as Politicians in other Developed and Developing Countries and Citizens in other Developed Countries and Developing Countries are to be serious in Fighting the War on Terror and War on Poverty, then more rigorous effort needs to be made towards addressing root problems on the ground within Informality, Formality, Inequality, Poverty Elimination and Environmental Sustainability.
Some American Politicians and American Citizens are calling for Political Revolution to address America’s root problems. However, Political Revolution that is not integral part of Cultural Revolution, Economic Revolution, Financial Revolution, Social Revolution, Environment Revolution, Peace Revolution, Security Revolution, Religion Revolution, Moral Revolution, Technical Revolution and Legal Revolution cannot produce Best Results on Successful and Sustainable Basis. Yet such Integrated Revolutions can only be delivered through Primary Revolutions, Secondary Revolutions and Reinventings such as those set out below whose Design and Delivery are within 2030 Agenda – AAAA, SDG, COP21, Agenda 21 aligned and harmonized with Community Development Plans and Country Development Plans in 193/306 UN Member States.
Governance, Government, Office of Citizen, Cities / Urban Areas, Villages / Rural Areas, Enterprises, Banks, Media, International Institutions, Universities / Tertiary Institutions
Primary: Agriculture Revolution, Enterprise Revolution, Government Revolution, Applied Research Revolution, Attitudinal and Behavioural Change Revolution; Data Revolution; Digital Revolution
Secondary: Cooperation Revolution, Advocacy Revolution, Media Revolution, Anti Corruption Revolution, Education, Health, Housing, Evaluation etc
Reinvigoration War on Poverty in US and Worldwide
2014 was the 50th Anniversary of President Johnson’s War on Poverty. We read with interest the 2014 assessment of US President Johnson’s War on Poverty, by a scholar from the University of Virginia. Our view is that there has been some Progress and some Setbacks; that should all relevant Stakeholders agree to shift focus away from Problems and Fixing Blame and shift focus towards Fixing Problems and Practical Solutions, America and indeed the World can Conquer Poverty.
There is a need for a New Type of assessment of the War on Poverty focusing on what is working and how it can be improved; what is not working and how it can be corrected; where America and World is now and where America and World need to be if the War on Poverty is to be Won on successful and sustainable basis in America and Worldwide by the target date of the 2030 Agenda and certainly, by the 75th Anniversary of President Johnson’s War on Poverty in 2039.
In the work towards Ending Hunger and Poverty in Nigeria, Africa, UK, Europe, US and World; there is a need to Fight and WIN 4 Wars from Village to Global levels: War on Poverty, Hunger, Disease and Environmental Degradation (PHDE). In each war there is a need to Fight and WIN 12 Battles: Battle Against Arrogance, Ignorance, Indifference, Incompetence, Indiscipline, Injustice, Intolerance, Insincerity, Inequality, Interference, Impunity and Corruption (A10IC).
Dr. Hellmut Eggers, German, 88 in July 2016 created Project Cycle Management, PCM Approach to Benefits Focused Evaluation in 1987. 29 years after, had there been increasing convergence between Original PCM Approach Intention and Reality, many of the problems highlighted by Evidence Based Policy Development Network, EBPDN, Members in April 2014 Discussion on How Research Influence Policy, that remain valid today, will not exist. Today, only Hellmut and Lanre et all at ISPE / EAG are practising Original PCM.
Lanre Rotimi created Policy, Program, Project Cycle Management, 3PCM and Comprehensive Systems Reform, CSR Approach to Benefits Focused National and International Development in 2009. In 2012 Hellmut and Lanre’s Versions of Original PCM were merged into 3PCM Approach to Sustainable Benefits Focused National and International Development Cooperation.
We note that there are different approaches, visions, models and tools available to each country to achieve National Resilience, Mitigation, Adaptation Plan, NRMAP; having 9 Components including Agriculture, Infrastructure, Health – Plant, Animal, Human etc; AAAA; SDG; COP21 and Agenda 21, in accordance with its national circumstances and priorities as well as its own development context. However, if there is to be continuously improving collaboration, cooperation, cohesion and coordination in the design and delivery of Policy, Program, Project Interventions, 3PIs and 3PIs Training as One, a need arises for United Community to Global Visions whose implementation and evaluation is built upon One Worldwide Approach that is a Common and Systemic Approach for improving Ownership, Alignment, Harmony etc that has clear Principles, Instruments / Tools corresponding to each Principle, Practices and Database. GPEDC Vision needs to coincide with such United Community to Global Vision.
Within 3PCM Approach, National and International Development Cooperation – Policy, Program, Project Interventions; 3PIs’ are Designed and Delivered as a set of Integrated ACTIONS as One:-
1. Consultative Research
2. Diagnostic Studies
5. Recovery Management
That is 3PCM Initiative – Design and Delivery of 3PIs’ using (1) – (5) as One and 3PCM Training – Design and Delivery of 3PIs’ using (1) – (5) as One Training are two sides of the same coin. Neither can stand alone.
(1) – (5) are interlinked, interconnected and interdependent. Any 3PI where one or more of the 5 Actions are not undertaken at minimum certain levels of Effectiveness and Efficiency cannot achieve set Goals and targets at all not to talk of on time. Documents relating to 3PCM Approach, including Generic MAF and Testing MAF available upon request.
Implementing Study Report Recommendations
ISPE / EAG have identified that flaws and failures implementing Sound Recommendations set out in Study Reports – including Reports such as World Development Reports, WDRs’; Conference Reports; Parliamentary Committee Reports; Regulatory Agency Reports, arise from the following Root Problems:-
1. Lack of One Worldwide Common and Systemic Approach to National and International Development Cooperation as well as National and International Security Strategy.
2. Lack of National and International Development Cooperation Stakeholder Groups Master Multi Stakeholder Platforms MSP, and MSPs that effectively Link Decision Makers and Managers on UN Members States; UN System – UNO, WBG, IMF and CSOs/NGOs from Community to Global levels
3. Lack of Movement for Positive Development Change Driving Sub-national, National and Global Collective ACTION that effectively link each Community in each of 306/193 UN Member States with UNO Headquarters New York, WBG Headquarters Washington, IMF Headquarters Washington, FAO/IFAD Headquarters Rome and ILO Headquarters Rome .
4. Lack of adequate National and International Development Cooperation Statutory Regulatory Agencies at National, Regional and Global levels.
5. Lack of bringing to bear Whole of Community/Country/Bank/Institution Thinking towards the Sustainable Solutions to Whole of Community/Country/Bank/ Institution problems.
Poverty, Hunger, Insecurity and Climate Change are the most urgent problems facing our World today and demand National Leaders and World Leaders work SMARTer to continuously improve collaboration, cooperation, cohesion and coordination within North South and South South Multi Stakeholder Platforms, MSPs, that effectively link each Community in each of the 193/306 Member States to UNO Headquarters New York, WBG Headquarters Washington, IMF Headquarters Washington, FAO/IFAD Headquarters Rome and ILO Headquarters Rome.
The GPDEC HLM2 Nairobi, December 2016 offers Global Platform for President Obama and US President Elect, UN Secretary General and UN Secretary General Election as well as the FAO DG to jointly seek effective support of National Leaders and World Leaders in the 3 Major Blocks – Major Groups, UN System – UNO, WBG, IMF and CSOs/NGOs for the Implementation and Evaluation of New NRMAP-Ag that is integral part of NRMAP that is integral part of renewed Global Collective Action towards sustainable solutions to all AAAA, SDG, COP21, Agenda 21 real and complex root problems on the ground from Community to Global levels.
Pilot Program and Scale Up Program
The Best way to Learn to Swim is to get into the Swimming Pool. The Best way to Test the Good Ideas and Pertinent Suggestions the HLM2 Team would harvest from HLM2 and its Global Consultation is to start immediately a Pilot Program and Scale Up Program.
GPEDC Vision – Acid Test of Credibility
The Acid Test of Credibility of the GPEDC Vision is How it Delivers from Community to Global levels:-
1. Better Aid, Trade, Debts, Anti Corruption and Anti Terror Interventions
2. Better Innovation and Creativity in Climate Change Resilience, Mitigation and Adaptation Solutions Management
3. Better Collaboration, Cooperation, Cohesion and Coordination
4. Better Pilot Programs and Scale Up Programs
Innovation and Creativity are Keys as we face Community to Global Challenges of Modernization and Climate Change in the 21st Century. 2016 US Presidential Elections and all that follows within and outside the US; France and German Elections in 2017 and all that follows as well as UK and EU Brexit negotiations and all that follows underline need to evolve New National and International Institutions Fit for the 21st Century.
The correct answers to HLM2 How questions could be found first, in selecting One Worldwide Approach, and second in establishing Pilot Programs to test good ideas and pertinent suggestions harvested from this Global Consultation and Scale Up Programs at National, Regional and Global levels for ideas and suggestions that Pilot Programs identify as Working. As long as Stakeholders continue to use multiple, sometimes divergent Approaches and as long as ideas and suggestions cannot be tested to determine what works and how it could be expanded and what is not working and how it could be corrected, it would be uphill task achieving increasing convergence between HLM2 Vision Intention and Reality.
These are indeed trying times. There is need to address fundamental issues of Denial, Deception and Delusion if sustainable solutions are to be found to War on Terror and War on Poverty in Nigeria, Africa, UK, Europe, US and rest of the World.
There is urgent need to move Nigeria, Africa, UK, Europe, US and rest of the World away from current path of acceleration on the MADning (Mutually Assured Destruction) Road to Doom to new path of acceleration on the MAPing (Mutually Assured Prosperity) Road to BOOM. There are bright prospects of success, if the right thing is done and on time.
International Society for Poverty Elimination / Economic Alliance Group,
Akure – Nigeria, West Africa.