ISPE EAG
INTERATIONAL
SOCIETY FOR POVERTY ELIMINATION ECONOMIC
ALLIANCE GROUP
Briefing # 9: The $5 Trillion Wars and $15 Trillion Wars: Rethinking
Development, Diplomacy, Defence, Democracy and Data – Central Role for SDG
Vision and Words with Action?
Global Call to US Leaders, Europe Leaders, World Leaders,
Representatives of 193 UN Member States, 9 Major Groups, other CSOs’ and other
Stakeholders.
By Lanre Rotimi and Peter Orawgu. 23 October 2016
Introduction
The evidence of the 135th US Labour Day is that
Poverty in America is at Jim Crow Days level for increasing number of American
Children, Youth, Women, Men and Elders. If there is any comfort, across the
Ocean in the UK, Poverty is now at Victorian Era levels for increasing number
of UK Children, Youth, Women, Men and Elders. This is also the reality in many
Developed and Developing Countries in our World today. Therefore, putting these
issues firmly on the Front Burner in the Public Arena in the 16 Days remaining
to US 2016 Presidential Elections, are issues that are too important to be left
in the hands of American Politicians and American Citizens alone.
Refocusing the 2016
US Presidential Elections on Fundamental Issues
US$ 5 Trillion War
on Terror
16
days to the 8 November US Presidential Elections, there is a need to reflect
deeply on root problems that led to this Election being probably the most
divisive ever in US history and make meaningful progress finding sustainable
solutions to same, even in the limited time remaining because 24 hours is a
very long time in Politics, how much more 16 days. This is more so when this 2016
US Presidential Elections coincide with 135th Labor Day in US and 1st
year after World Leaders endorsed the SDG.
The
most recent estimates suggest that US War on Terror has cost about US$5
Trillion and has been financed through Bonds in ways that side track US
Budgetary Framework and so American Politicians and American Citizens appear
ignorant of this staggering costs, since it is not financed by Tax and
repayment will be the responsibility of future Generations of Americans.
It
is a Scar on the Conscience of American Politicians and American Public that
this US$ 5 Trillion and increasing War on Terror is essentially a Spectator War
in which most Americans are neither involved nor engaged. This accounts for the absence of any real political
discussion about how America will fund huge costs of the War on Terror that are
still to be paid — for example, the $1 Trillion in lifetime disability
compensation that Americans have awarded to 960,000 recent veterans.
It is worse that no American is asking whether the current
approach in Afghanistan is working. Last month the US special Inspector General
for Afghanistan Reconstruction, John Sopko, reported that corruption in
Afghanistan is far more widespread than before the 2001 US invasion, due to US
policies that “unintentionally aided and abetted corruption.” But his
investigations get barely a mention in the media. Americans need to actually
learn lessons from lessons learnt in the past 15 years of War on Terror
The required minimum certain levels of change will begin to
occur only if Americans are obliged to pay for War on Terror operations on “Pay
as Americans Go” basis, and also set aside money now to support and care for
American veterans in the future. This is not simply about sound fiscal
budgetary policy. Rather, it is about shouldering the burden of America Wars
and, in doing so, being open to learn from America Wars mistakes. All Americans
want to continue to “Support America Troops.” Sweeping the costs under the
carpet is clearly not the right way to do it. Now is the time
for US Universities, American Elders, American Citizens of Goodwill, American
Security and American Media to be more determined in pursuing American Rescue
Mission that Works.
US$ 15 Trillion War
on Poverty
In addition to the US$5 Trillion War on Terror, the US
Government is also Fighting War on Poverty at cost of US$15 Trillion. Americans
need to be genuinely concerned and engaged in HOW American Congress Finance War
on Terror and War on Poverty. Americans in indeed the World would be better
off, using the next 16 Days to the 2016 Presidential Elections for Serious Talk
on Serious Issues of the Dishonest Methods American Congress use to spend money
and buy votes.
The Social Programs within War on Poverty are destined to
bankrupt America by the way their finances are structured and by America’s
demographics, if not urgently overhauled. Whoever becomes the next US President
will have the honour of guiding America through the next waves of National and
Global Financial Crises any of which could make 1930s Global Recession Child’s
Play if urgent remedial measures are not taken.
Evaluation –
Learning Lessons
There is urgent need to undertake sound Evaluation of past 15
Years (September 2001 – September 2016) of American War on Terror, if the next
15 (September 2016 – September 2031) Years Scorecard is to be different and
also undertake sound Evaluation of the first 50 Years (January 1964 – January
2014) of American War on Poverty, if the next 50 Years (January 2014 – January
2064) Scorecard is to be different.
As long as American Politicians and American Citizens as well
as Politicians in other Developed Countries and Developing Countries and
Citizens in other Developed Countries and Developing Countries do not actually
learn lessons of history, these Politicians and Citizens are doomed to repeat
the mistake of history at Sub-national, National and International levels in
the National and Global War on Terror and War on Poverty.
As long as American Politicians and American Citizens leave
undone what they ought to do and do what they ought not to do, the real issues
will continue to be avoided or evaded and the next American President will not
clear signal from the American Citizens that help him/her Muster the Political
Will required to effectively address all necessary Political and Sensitive
Issues that Rethinking War on Terror and War on Poverty for Sustainable
Solutions need to address in the Common Interest and Common Future of US and
the World. This underlines urgent need to build bridge between lessons learning
and lessons forgetting from Community to Global levels.
US National Security
American Politicians and American
Citizens need to get out of their belief that the rest of the World is America’s potential enemy, that
war with someone at each point in time, is always inevitable and only a strong
military will keep America safe.
The reality is that this belief no longer holds
in today’s World, even if there could be reasons for it in the past. Today
there is increasing awareness of Global Human Connectedness and the Shared
Planetary Risk of Eco-collapse that is worsened by increasing Climate Change
and Agriculture Challenges from Community to Global levels.
The American Politician and American Citizens
should appreciate that if they do not know why Terror is Fighting America and
the World, they will not know how to Fight Terror within the US and Worldwide;
that Fighting Terror that is essentially Guerilla Warfare, using Conventional
Warfare Strategy and Tactics effort that is doomed to fail ab initio and that one
can reason with another who wants to kill you but does not want to die in the
process, however reasoning with one who wants to kill you and die in the
process is an entirely different ball game and that collateral damage in
Civilian Lives and Property in reality is booster to the Terrorist and so if
care is not take Americans will be helping the Terrorists to defeat America and
achieve their Goal of American Decline on Palter of Gold.
As America safety is far, far more imperiled by
the fact that America has a military whose operations facing current direction
and adopting current priorities is, in fact, creating more enemies as it churns
out endless collateral damage, a.k.a., dead and injured civilians, than by any
enemy that military is allegedly fighting, the time is now for America to
Design and Deliver New National Security Strategy and New International
Security Strategy that is Integral Part of curing diseases responsible for
current failure of Community to Global: Development, Diplomacy, Defense,
Democracy – regardless of the form of Government – Capitalism, Socialism,
Communism, Welfarism etc in any of the 193/306 UN Member States and Data.
US Congress Gimmicks
and President Obama’s Nobel Price for Peace
President Obama promised to end Congress Gimmicks
but they continued throughout his Presidency. The next President needs the
support of American Citizens to end the Gimmicks in America’s enlightened self
interest. President Obama was awarded Nobel Price for Peace at the onset of his
Presidency – an act that is similar to awarding pass with Distinction before
sitting examination. In the twilight of his Presidency, President Obama would
earn his Nobel Price, if he helps to refocus the 2016 Presidential Elections to
more effectively address substantive National and International Development
Cooperation as well as National and International Security issues.
US Political Revolution
and related Revolutions and Initiatives
It is pertinent to note that poverty is a cause
and a product of human rights violations; that corruption is a cause and a
product of poverty; that injustice is a cause and a product of corruption and
that inequality is a cause and a product of injustice. Therefore if American
Politicians and American Citizens as well as Politicians in other Developed and
Developing Countries and Citizens in other Developed Countries and Developing
Countries are to be serious in Fighting the War on Terror and War on Poverty,
then more rigorous effort needs to be made towards addressing root problems on
the ground within Informality, Formality, Inequality, Poverty Elimination and
Environmental Sustainability.
Some American
Politicians and American Citizens are calling for Political Revolution to
address America’s root problems. However, Political Revolution that is not
integral part of Cultural Revolution, Economic Revolution, Financial Revolution,
Social Revolution, Environment Revolution, Peace Revolution, Security
Revolution, Religion Revolution, Moral Revolution, Technical Revolution and
Legal Revolution cannot produce Best Results on Successful and Sustainable
Basis. Yet such Integrated Revolutions can only be delivered through Primary
Revolutions, Secondary Revolutions and Reinventings such as those set out below
whose Design and Delivery are within 2030 Agenda – AAAA, SDG, COP21, Agenda 21
aligned and harmonized with Community Development Plans and Country Development
Plans in 193/306 UN Member States.
Reinventings:
Governance, Government, Office of Citizen,
Cities / Urban Areas, Villages / Rural Areas, Enterprises, Banks, Media,
International Institutions, Universities / Tertiary Institutions
Revolutions:
Primary: Agriculture Revolution, Enterprise
Revolution, Government Revolution, Applied Research Revolution, Attitudinal and
Behavioural Change Revolution; Data Revolution; Digital Revolution
Secondary: Cooperation Revolution, Advocacy
Revolution, Media Revolution, Anti Corruption Revolution, Education, Health,
Housing, Evaluation etc
Reinvigoration War on Poverty in US and
Worldwide
2014 was the 50th Anniversary of
President Johnson’s War on Poverty. We read with interest the 2014 assessment
of US President Johnson’s War on Poverty, by a scholar from the University of
Virginia. Our view is that there has been some Progress and some Setbacks; that
should all relevant Stakeholders agree to shift focus away from Problems and
Fixing Blame and shift focus towards Fixing Problems and Practical Solutions,
America and indeed the World can Conquer Poverty.
There is a need for a New Type of
assessment of the War on Poverty focusing on what is working and how it can be
improved; what is not working and how it can be corrected; where America and
World is now and where America and World need to be if the War on Poverty is to
be Won on successful and sustainable basis in America and Worldwide by the
target date of the 2030 Agenda and certainly, by the 75th
Anniversary of President Johnson’s War on Poverty in 2039.
In the
work towards Ending Hunger and Poverty in Nigeria, Africa, UK, Europe, US and
World; there is a need to Fight and WIN 4 Wars from Village to Global levels:
War on Poverty, Hunger, Disease and Environmental Degradation (PHDE). In each
war there is a need to Fight and WIN 12 Battles: Battle Against Arrogance,
Ignorance, Indifference, Incompetence, Indiscipline, Injustice, Intolerance,
Insincerity, Inequality, Interference, Impunity and Corruption (A10IC).
3PCM APPROACH
Dr.
Hellmut Eggers, German, 88 in July 2016 created Project Cycle Management, PCM
Approach to Benefits Focused Evaluation in 1987. 29 years after, had there been
increasing convergence between Original PCM Approach Intention and Reality,
many of the problems highlighted by Evidence Based Policy Development Network,
EBPDN, Members in April 2014 Discussion on How Research Influence Policy, that
remain valid today, will not exist. Today, only Hellmut and Lanre et all at ISPE
/ EAG are practising Original PCM.
Lanre
Rotimi created Policy, Program, Project Cycle Management, 3PCM and
Comprehensive Systems Reform, CSR Approach to Benefits Focused National and
International Development in 2009. In 2012 Hellmut and Lanre’s Versions of
Original PCM were merged into 3PCM Approach to Sustainable Benefits Focused
National and International Development Cooperation.
We note
that there are
different approaches, visions, models and tools available to each country to
achieve National Resilience, Mitigation, Adaptation Plan, NRMAP; having 9
Components including Agriculture, Infrastructure, Health – Plant, Animal, Human
etc; AAAA; SDG; COP21 and Agenda 21, in accordance with its national
circumstances and priorities as well as its own development context. However,
if there is to be continuously improving collaboration, cooperation, cohesion
and coordination in the design and delivery of Policy, Program, Project
Interventions, 3PIs and 3PIs Training as One, a need arises for United
Community to Global Visions whose implementation and evaluation is built upon
One Worldwide Approach that is a Common and Systemic Approach for improving Ownership,
Alignment, Harmony etc that has clear Principles, Instruments / Tools
corresponding to each Principle, Practices and Database. GPEDC Vision needs to
coincide with such United Community to Global Vision.
Within
3PCM Approach, National and International Development Cooperation – Policy,
Program, Project Interventions; 3PIs’ are Designed and Delivered as a set of
Integrated ACTIONS as One:-
1. Consultative Research
2. Diagnostic Studies
3. Prescription
4. Surgery
5. Recovery Management
That is
3PCM Initiative – Design and Delivery of 3PIs’ using (1) – (5) as One and 3PCM
Training – Design and Delivery of 3PIs’ using (1) – (5) as One Training are two
sides of the same coin. Neither can stand alone.
(1) – (5)
are interlinked, interconnected and interdependent. Any 3PI where one or more
of the 5 Actions are not undertaken at
minimum certain levels of Effectiveness and Efficiency cannot achieve
set Goals and targets at all not to talk of on time. Documents relating to 3PCM
Approach, including Generic MAF and Testing MAF available upon request.
Implementing Study Report Recommendations
ISPE /
EAG have identified that flaws and failures implementing Sound Recommendations
set out in Study Reports – including Reports such as World Development Reports,
WDRs’; Conference Reports; Parliamentary Committee Reports; Regulatory Agency
Reports, arise from the following Root Problems:-
1. Lack of One Worldwide Common and Systemic
Approach to National and International Development Cooperation as well as
National and International Security Strategy.
2. Lack of National and International
Development Cooperation Stakeholder Groups Master Multi Stakeholder Platforms
MSP, and MSPs that effectively Link Decision Makers and Managers on UN Members
States; UN System – UNO, WBG, IMF and CSOs/NGOs from Community to Global levels
3. Lack of Movement for Positive Development
Change Driving Sub-national, National and Global Collective ACTION that
effectively link each Community in each of 306/193 UN Member States with UNO
Headquarters New York, WBG Headquarters Washington, IMF Headquarters
Washington, FAO/IFAD Headquarters Rome and ILO Headquarters Rome .
4. Lack of adequate National and International
Development Cooperation Statutory Regulatory Agencies at National, Regional and
Global levels.
5. Lack of bringing to bear Whole of
Community/Country/Bank/Institution Thinking towards the Sustainable Solutions
to Whole of Community/Country/Bank/ Institution problems.
GPDEC HLM2
Poverty, Hunger, Insecurity and Climate Change are the
most urgent problems facing our World today and demand National Leaders and
World Leaders work SMARTer to continuously improve collaboration, cooperation,
cohesion and coordination within North South and South South Multi Stakeholder
Platforms, MSPs, that effectively link each Community in each of the 193/306
Member States to UNO Headquarters New York, WBG Headquarters Washington, IMF
Headquarters Washington, FAO/IFAD Headquarters Rome and ILO Headquarters Rome.
The
GPDEC HLM2 Nairobi, December 2016 offers Global Platform for President Obama
and US President Elect, UN Secretary General and UN Secretary General Election
as well as the FAO DG to jointly seek effective support of National Leaders and
World Leaders in the 3 Major Blocks – Major Groups, UN System – UNO, WBG, IMF
and CSOs/NGOs for the Implementation and Evaluation of New NRMAP-Ag that is
integral part of NRMAP that is integral part of renewed Global Collective
Action towards sustainable solutions to all AAAA, SDG, COP21, Agenda 21 real
and complex root problems on the ground from Community to Global levels.
Pilot Program and Scale Up Program
The
Best way to Learn to Swim is to get into the Swimming Pool. The Best way to
Test the Good Ideas and Pertinent Suggestions the HLM2 Team would harvest from HLM2
and its Global Consultation is to start immediately a Pilot Program and Scale
Up Program.
GPEDC Vision – Acid Test
of Credibility
[[
The
Acid Test of Credibility of the GPEDC Vision is How it Delivers from Community
to Global levels:-
1.
Better
Aid, Trade, Debts, Anti Corruption and Anti Terror Interventions
2.
Better
Innovation and Creativity in Climate Change Resilience, Mitigation and
Adaptation Solutions Management
3.
Better
Collaboration, Cooperation, Cohesion and Coordination
4.
Better
Pilot Programs and Scale Up Programs
Way Forward
Innovation
and Creativity are Keys as we face Community to Global Challenges of
Modernization and Climate Change in the 21st Century. 2016 US Presidential
Elections and all that follows within and outside the US; France and German
Elections in 2017 and all that follows as well as UK and EU Brexit negotiations
and all that follows underline need to evolve New National and International
Institutions Fit for the 21st Century.
The
correct answers to HLM2 How questions could be found first, in selecting One
Worldwide Approach, and second in establishing Pilot Programs to test good
ideas and pertinent suggestions harvested from this Global Consultation and
Scale Up Programs at National, Regional and Global levels for ideas and
suggestions that Pilot Programs identify as Working. As long as Stakeholders continue
to use multiple, sometimes divergent Approaches and as long as ideas and
suggestions cannot be tested to determine what works and how it could be
expanded and what is not working and how it could be corrected, it would be
uphill task achieving increasing convergence between HLM2 Vision Intention and
Reality.
[[[[[[
Conclusion
]]][[[[[
These are indeed trying times. There is
need to address fundamental issues of Denial, Deception and Delusion if
sustainable solutions are to be found to War on Terror and War on Poverty in
Nigeria, Africa, UK, Europe, US and rest of the World.
There is urgent need to move Nigeria,
Africa, UK, Europe, US and rest of the World away from current path of acceleration
on the MADning (Mutually Assured Destruction) Road to Doom to new path of acceleration
on the MAPing (Mutually Assured Prosperity) Road to BOOM. There are bright
prospects of success, if the right thing is done and on time.
Contact:
Lanre Rotimi
Director General,
International Society for Poverty
Elimination / Economic Alliance Group,
Akure – Nigeria, West Africa.
Email: nehap.initiative@yahoo.co.uk
M: +234-8162469805
